BE Semiconductor Industries NV (BESI.AS): Catalysts Thin, Move to EW

Orders beat while the 4Q guide was softer, with the mainstream business again doing more of the heavy lifting. Revenue of €283m was in line, while orders of €343m were 15% above consensus. The midpoint of 4Q revenue guidance (flat q/q, +/-5%) implies c.€283m, 3% below consensus. The order mix included photonics, data centre and AI power management, while mobile and automotive were the only end markets management said were not improving. The quarter delivered the beat but not the raise some were looking for. The HBM catalyst that was the focal point of investor expectations continues as an R&D order book, and we think production orders are likely now in 2027. Hybrid bonding orders came from two new customers (now 23 customers, up from 21), with repeat orders in co-packaged optics and logic. Management expects hybrid bonding adoption across a range of HBM stack heights over the next two years, but precise volume production dates remain unknown. We leave our estimates unchanged, cut our m