Wacker Chemie AG (WCHG.DE) (Still) Waiting For The Last Cut

We reiterate our Sell rating on Wacker Chemie with a new target price of €81 (from €85) on revised estimates and a higher WACC. Polysilicon has been an overhang on the shares for several years. While earnings have likely troughed, our analysis indicates that consensus estimates may not have. Our new Semi-only base case, which assumes the closure of one polysilicon plant, implies 2028 Polysilicon EBITDA of €125m, 15% below VA consensus and 3% at the group level. 2027 is likely to be another transition year, with our group EBITDA forecast 11% below consensus (3% excluding restructuring). Section 232 is unlikely to drive an imminent recovery in solar volumes, and the expiry of remaining high-priced Solar contracts creates further downside to the current c.€10m quarterly EBITDA run-rate. The valuation implies the highest no-growth EBITDA among peers and fails to reflect the likely structural exit from Solar-Polysilicon.