本报告为巴克莱美国股票策略团队发布的三季度财报季前瞻。报告认为，在需求稳健与定价强劲的支撑下，本季盈利增长有望延续，但高企的国债收益率与高波动驱动的上涨行情抬高了企业兑现三季度业绩与前瞻指引的门槛，交易财报或呈现高风险、高回报特征。目前市场涨幅集中，标普500近一个月跑赢等权重指数约260个基点，而53%的成份股仍低于200日均线，高beta与大型科技股领涨使指引不及预期者面临更严厉惩罚；同时标普500前瞻市盈率约19倍，低于上季的20.3倍，估值更具吸引力，利好"超预期并上调"个股表现。共识预计标普500本季EPS同比增长26.5%，能源（129.7%）与科技（63.1%）领先，芯片、存储与油气贡献突出；全年EPS预期由367美元升至420美元。万圣节前后两周为催化剂最密集窗口，10个最大财报日中7个落在该区间，且11月3日中期选举临近。
We expect this season to confirm that earnings growth remains on track amid healthy demand and strong pricing, but trading the prints is likely to be high-risk, high-reward as elevated yields and the volatility-led rally raise the bar for companies to deliver on 3Q results and forward guidance. While the earnings outlook is bright, we are cautious on the setup for shares into reporting season. Gains remain concentrated with SPX outperforming SPW by ~260bp over the last month while 53% of SPX members are still below their 200-day MAs. Cheaper valuations (SPX at ~19x NTM EPS, down from 20.3x last season) should catalyze better upside for companies that beat-and-raise. Consensus looks for the S&P 500 to deliver +26.5% EPS growth this quarter, led by Energy and Tech, with an 11.0% top-line increase. The last week of October and first week of November will be the most catalyst-heavy of the season, with 7 of the 10 biggest reporting days by market cap in that window and the US midterm electi