Philippines: Q3 GDP growth moderates further, investment recovery still absent

Philippines real GDP growth slowed to 2.1% yoy in Q3 2026 from 2.4% yoy in Q2 2026, versus our 3.3% estimate and Bloomberg consensus of 3.0%. Growth over the first three quarters averaged 2.5% yoy, well below the government's 3.5%-4.5% full-year target range. Private consumption contributed 1.7pp to headline growth, down from 2.0pp, as spending weakened across food and beverages, restaurants and hotels, and transport. Public consumption added 1.0pp versus 1.5pp in Q2. Investment improved but remained negligible at 0.0pp after subtracting 2.3pp in Q2, dragged by sharp declines in transport equipment and general industrial equipment, with no meaningful recovery since the H2 2025 slowdown. Net exports stayed a drag: net goods exports subtracted 0.4pp and net services exports 0.1pp, driven by a sharp rise in AI-related electronics imports tied to the Philippines' role in back-end semiconductor assembly, testing and packaging. Overall the data point to still-subdued growth, with the key con