花旗研究维持未来0至3个月铝价3000美元/吨的预测，短期对铝价整体持中性看法。报告指出，可见库存偏低叠加地缘政治风险升温，将继续为铝价提供下方支撑；但明年供需格局仍面临挑战：印尼产能投放、中国以外地区新增及复产产能、以及中国境内产量的渐进式增长，将推动市场在2027年前趋于宽松。需求端，9月全球铝终端需求同比增长0.2%，年初至今增长0.6%，主要靠中国以外消费支撑；中国隐含铝消费同比下降1.8%，年初至今下降0.5%，地产与建筑活动持续低迷是最大拖累，能源转型相关板块的增长不足以抵消传统周期行业的下滑，增值税退税下调等政策变化还可能带来额外压力。中国以外需求相对有韧性，受益于可再生能源装机与电网投资，并可能受人工智能驱动的电力基础设施支出提振。宏观层面，主要发达经济体制造业PMI仍处扩张区间，但复苏主要由人工智能与科技相关资本开支驱动；中国10月PMI偏弱，9月以来政策尚未传导至硬数据，中央经济工作会议与政治局会议是后续政策加码的关键窗口。
We maintain our 0-3-month aluminium price forecast of $3,000/t and remain broadly neutral in the near term. While low visible inventories and elevated geopolitical risks should continue to provide downside support, the outlook for next year remains challenged by Indonesian-led supply growth and a muted demand environment. Indonesian capacity ramp-ups, ex-China additions and restarts, and incremental production creep within China should contribute to a looser market balance into 2027, so we see limited scope for a sustained upside without a meaningful improvement in underlying demand, particularly from China. Global aluminium end-use demand grew 0.2% y/y in September 2026 (ytd +0.6%), supported primarily by ex-China consumption, while implied Chinese aluminium consumption declined 1.8% y/y (ytd -0.5%) as property and construction weakness persisted and energy-transition growth proved insufficient to offset declines across traditional cyclical markets. Ex-China consumption remains relati