Sporting Goods Retail: The Latest Views on US Market Growth, Promotionality, and the Sneaker Launch Calendar; Reiterate OW on DKS, ADS, ONON

Utilizing Chase credit card data, this collaborative note examines the latest growth in the US sporting goods sector, retailer and brand promotionality, and the improving footwear/sneaker launch calendar. September US sporting goods spending grew +8.1% YOY, accelerating from August's +3.9% on the back-to-school/Labor Day shift; the 1Y QTD moderated ~220bps to a still strong +6.0%. Market promotionality remains high, driven by brand DTC globally clearing inventories, with core Dick's less promotional/more disciplined in September, Foot Locker's QTD uptick better than feared, and JD Sports less promotional than Foot Locker and brand.com. adidas and On run low promotion breadth in US retail, indicating well-controlled inventories. Footwear launches in retail 3Q are 40-60% higher than 2Q across running, lifestyle, and basketball, though the hope for better lifestyle sales performance remains a 1H27 question. We reiterate Overweight on DKS, ADS, and ONON, and remain Neutral on Puma.