报告认为当前市场缺乏清晰主线，美联储、财政、地缘政治、AI与能源等主题对美元的多空指向难以界定，叠加中期选举临近两周，汇市整体呈震荡盘整格局，本周基本面数据仅有周五PMI。欧元方面，法国抗议活动加剧市场对法国财政与政治前景的担忧，欧美汇价维持逢反弹卖出思路，欧元区经济韧性是唯一支撑，需关注PMI是否走弱，关键位1.1109与1.1285/1.1330。英镑虽持续获得支撑、欧元兑英镑空头受益，但本周就业、通胀与零售数据密集且汇价已显超卖，暂观望。日元方面，重点看科技股财报，10年期美债收益率低开支撑日元，158附近日本大型卖盘限制美元兑日元上行，维持做空。瑞郎方面，维持做空欧元兑瑞郎，策略团队将预测下调至0.93，汇价已跌破200日均线0.9238，并新增美元兑瑞郎下行头寸。澳元在经历美国通胀与澳洲就业数据冲击后反弹较好，继续看好澳元交叉盘做多。
Another messy Friday and weekend of headlines makes it hard to identify the dominant trading theme (Fed, fiscal, geopolitics, AI, energy), and even harder to judge whether these are dollar-bullish or bearish; with the midterms two weeks away, the market is in a choppy holding pattern and the week's only data point is Friday's PMIs. On EUR, French protests add to fiscal/political concerns and keep EURUSD in sell-rallies mode, with economic resilience the sole pillar of support and PMIs worth watching; levels remain 1.1109 and 1.1285/1.1330. On GBP, sterling continues to find support and helps EUR/GBP shorts, but with employment, inflation and retail sales due and EUR/GBP oversold, we stay on the sidelines. On JPY, tech earnings dominate; lower yields should support the yen and large, deliberately obvious Japanese selling interest around 158 caps USDJPY, so remain short. On CHF, stay short EURCHF with the strategy team cutting forecasts to 0.93 from 0.95;