报告指出全球利率已升至2007年以来最高水平。高盛预计利率不会长期维持在当前高位，但近期的利率上行引发了对2027年经济增长承压的担忧。为评估这一风险，报告建立了一套"经验法则"，从住房投资、居民消费、企业资本开支和公共财政四个渠道，量化主要发达经济体对利率上行的近期敏感度：加息会通过按揭利率上升、消费信贷收紧压低居民消费，通过企业债务再融资成本上升和资本机会成本提高抑制企业投资，并通过抬高付息成本挤压公共财政。跨国差异显著，浮动利率按揭占比高、按揭重置规模大的经济体（如瑞典、澳大利亚、加拿大）受冲击最大，而美国及部分欧洲大陆经济体因住房供给约束、按揭久期较长等因素整体敏感度相对较低。综合各渠道，利率上行会对发达市场GDP形成拖累，其效果已被高盛金融条件指数所刻画；若近期利率上行按其预测回落，实际拖累将明显更小。
Global interest rates have risen to their highest levels since 2007. We do not anticipate that rates will persist at current elevated levels, but the rise has raised concerns that persistently higher rates will create headwinds in 2027. To help assess these risks, we develop rules of thumb to quantify the near-term rate sensitivity of major DM economies across four channels: housing investment, consumer spending, business investment and public finances. Each 100bp increase in rates materially weighs on DM housing investment, consumption and business investment, with the largest effects concentrated in economies where mortgage rate resets squeeze household cash flow (e.g., Sweden, Australia and Canada), while sensitivities in the US and several large European economies tend to be lower and more driven by drags on corporate and residential investment. Taken together, our estimates point to a hit to DM GDP over the following year. While rules of thumb help evaluate differential exposures