摩根大通全球大宗商品研究发布《金属周报》，指出其经济学家预计美联储将于今日加息25个基点，并在12月再加息25个基点。自沃什在杰克逊霍尔会议发表讲话、市场大幅重新定价加息预期以来，黄金虽承压但整体仍相对坚挺，部分得益于持续的ETF需求。然而这本身构成近期仓位风险：据其分析，7月中旬以来的ETF新增持仓开始显得头重脚轻，若金价处于或低于4350美元/盎司，可能有逾90吨持仓陷入亏损。若美联储立场进一步转鹰，亏损的ETF持仓最终平仓可能推动金价短期再次考验4000美元/盎司关口。因此对当前价位维持近期战术性谨慎，但金价跌向或跌破4000美元/盎司后将构成中期买入机会，因摩根大通经济基准情形预期美联储加息幅度将低于当前市场预期，该拐点预计需时间逐步显现，预计明年金价回升至5000美元/盎司。
Our economists expect the Fed to hike 25 bp today followed by another 25 bp hike in December. While under pressure since Warsh's Jackson Hole speech and a subsequent significant repricing in Fed rate hike expectations, gold has remained somewhat resilient all things considered, in part helped by continued ETF demand. However, this in itself presents a near-term positioning risk as, based on our analysis, recent ETF additions since mid-July are starting to look pretty top-heavy with potentially over 90 tonnes loss making at prices at or below $4,350/oz. Amid this positioning risk, a crystallisation of a more hawkish Fed, which builds further pressure on gold, risks driving a more material crack in gold's resilience as loss-making ETF holdings begin to finally liquidate, pushing prices once again towards another defence of $4,000/oz in the near term. This risk still keeps us tactically cautious from current levels near term, although a flush towards $4,000/oz or below would eventually pr