Saudi Arabian Mining Co. (1211.SE): 3Q26 First Take: top-line beat, weaker margins on higher sulfur cost

Maaden reported 3Q26 numbers on November 9th. Revenue of SAR11.06bn beat GSe/Bloomberg consensus by +12%/+4% on stronger performance within aluminum and gold, but EBITDA of SAR3.59bn was -1% vs. GSe and in line with consensus as phosphate EBITDA at SAR0.5bn (-83% YoY, -59% QoQ) on record sulfur costs and the absence of ammonia export sales. Group EBITDA margin of 32% came in below GSe/cons at 37%/34%, with phosphate margin at 10% (vs. 31% cons). Aluminum delivered a second consecutive record quarter (EBITDA +45% vs. cons) and Gold and Growth Metals a record financial performance ex-exploration spend (EBITDA +12% vs. cons). Net income of SAR1.7bn was +11% vs. GSe and in line with consensus, supported below the EBITDA line. GS view: we expect a neutral to positive market reaction given the margin miss is concentrated in phosphate; sulfur is now the binding constraint despite production volumes up QoQ, and sulfur prices have softened recently which could support margins into 4Q; the US$1b