Trainline: H1 adj. EBITDA beat (+4%) unlikely to carry - FY guide reaffirmed with all eyes on a challenging set-up in FY28

Our Take: Trainline's H127 results came in ahead of expectations, with H1 adj. EBITDA of £100m (3.06% of NTS) beating both our estimate and consensus at £96m (2.95% of NTS), building on the broadly in-line H127 trading update. Despite the beat, management has reiterated FY27 guidance at a group level – net ticket sales of £6.2bn-6.45bn, revenue of £440m-455m, and adj. EBITDA at c.2.9% of net ticket sales (c.£183m) with International Consumer guided above breakeven in FY27 (vs. reaching break-even previously). With the H1 beat not carrying through, we see scope for the market to question a softer-than-expected H2 with lingering challenges (Project Oval, rail/fare regulation, inbound uncertainty, European consumer sentiment etc.), while all eyes turn to the set-up for 2028, which may disappoint at the outset given a cautious tone into year-end. With execution now under greater scrutiny, we expect attention to pivot towards the conference call where we will look for a clear articulation o