Flutter: Volumes are back. When will earnings follow?

Flutter's Q3 miss traces to sports outcomes and Brazil rather than any crack in FanDuel's engagement, but a second consecutive guidance cut leaves a lot riding on Q4. Group adj. EBITDA of $360M (-25% Y/Y) came in ~$70M below our $430M (cons. $417M), and the FY26 midpoint falls $160M to $2,495M. US handle of ~$12.0B (+13% Y/Y) beat our ~$11.6B, but NRM slipped 60bps to 6.8% as promo stepped up to 6.0% of handle, leaving US EBITDA at ~breakeven ($3M vs. our $9M). International ($435M vs. our $504M) absorbed an ~$86M hit from sports results. The new guide implies ~$996M of Q4 EBITDA (+~20% Y/Y vs. our prior $1,037M); management has already flagged unfavorable outcomes early in the quarter, and the buyback is now paused. Volume momentum at FD is real, but Flutter's early 2027 commentary (flat NRM, cost of sales ~58% of revenue and marketing intensity similar to 2026) implies ~$690M of FY27 US EBITDA on our handle assumptions, versus ~$1.13B in VA consensus. We expect Street FY27 numbers to