Global Biopharmaceuticals — APAC Focus: ADC 3.0: Widening the efficacy and safety window

Our review of more than 2,300 ADC (antibody-drug conjugates) programmes suggests that ADCs remain one of the fastest-growing areas in oncology, with the market potentially reaching US$37-66bn by 2030. We take a bottom-up look at next-generation ADCs, mapping the competitive landscape across nine major ADC targets and assessing the payload, linker and drug-design innovations that could define ADC 3.0. We connect clinical differentiation to stock implications across leading APAC ADC developers and assess the longer-term risk from biosimilars through a detailed review of Enhertu's patent estate. We believe competition in ADC development is increasingly intense, particularly in TROP2, leaving room for debate over the commercial value of Daiichi Sankyo's AVANZAR and supporting our Neutral rating. Meanwhile, Daiichi Sankyo is leading development in B7-H3 and CDH6 ADCs, although the addressable markets are relatively smaller. Global ADC market to reach $37-66bn in 2030;