Weichai Power (2338.HK): Double-checking the GNRC-AMZN deal again; AIDC Gas Engine Ramp more a 4Q26 Catalyst

Citi outlines additional analysis following its initial assessment. We fine-tuned our estimates on the potential diesel engine demand from the GNRC-AMZN US$2.4bn supply agreement. By assuming ASP per-MW of GNRC's diesel generator at US$0.65mn, average power of Weichai's large-bore diesel engine at 2.5MW and ASP per unit engine at US$0.3mn, the potential revenue contribution to Weichai is ~US$441mn for 27-28E. Weichai rose modestly (+5% on 17-Sep) as an indirect beneficiary of the deal (supplying engines via Baudouin subsidiary). However, the delayed delivery timeline (27/28E) limits immediate re-rating, and the potential impact of EO14420 is still an overhang. Going forward, Weichai's gas engine for active power should begin shipment from end-Sep/Oct with a 26E target of 200-300 units, with 2,000 units shipment expected in 27E, per company. We see this as more of a 4Q26E catalyst, supporting Weichai's top-line growth and margin into 2027E given higher ASP and better margin. By applying