Guangdong Songfa Ceramics (603268.SS): Initiating at Buy: Riding the Upcycle into 2035

We initiate coverage of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics (603268.SS), the listed vehicle of Hengli Heavy Industry and the world's second- and third-largest shipbuilder by DWT/CGT orderbooks, at Buy with a target price of Rmb300, set at a ~15% premium to regional peers based on 10x 2028E EPS, implying 60.9% upside from Rmb186.4. We believe the global shipbuilding upcycle that started in 2021 remains at mid-stage and should last into ~2035: orderbooks already extend to 2030, while 25% of the fleet will enter the retirement window before 2035, so post-2030 replacement demand should sustain new ordering. Middle East disruption has tightened VLCC capacity and triggered rush tanker orders;