3Q26 Earnings Preview (HVAC): Like JCI setup the most, some price/cost debates at TT, concerns on 4Q guide at CARR

In our earnings preview on HVAC names, we discuss our view on the setup for JCI, TT, and CARR. We like the setup for JCI the most (our top HVAC pick), driven by data center strength and its idiosyncratic transformation story, and see it as having the most potential for near-term earnings revisions, with a positive sentiment setup into the print. On Trane, we view concerns around price/cost as likely overblown and expect organic growth to come in strong regardless, with residential offsets easing margin pressure; we continue to like the company long-term. Carrier is where sentiment is weakest, largely due to margin concerns and a lack of structural recovery on residential; we see limited downside but stay tactically neutral given a lack of catalysts, and we take our target price down. We also rate the broader electrical equipment and industrial names including Vertiv, nVent, Amphenol, TE Connectivity, Emerson, Honeywell, Rockwell, Parker, Otis, and 3M.