Momentum Building Ahead of Backlog Disclosure

We expect ASML to strike a more constructive tone into Q3 results (Oct 14), supported by strengthening AI-driven demand, improving visibility and growing confidence in its medium-term outlook. We see scope for a modest uplift to management's 2027-28 capacity and revenue assumptions ahead of the more meaningful catalyst of backlog disclosure in January. With our forecasts remaining above consensus (ie 20%+ for 28E EPS), ASML trades at just 25x/17x 2027E/2028E P/E, well below its historical average of ~30x and at only a 2% premium to peers versus a 10Y average of 81%. Buy. Key points: 1) Higher 2027-28 outlook — ASML currently guides low NA and immersion capacity to increase by c30% in both 2027E and 2028E;