Focus Media Information Technology (002027.SZ) 3Q26 Preview: Peak Pressure, with Dividend Support

We expect 3Q26 to mark peak pressure for Focus Media, with deeper revenue and net profit declines vs. 2Q26 (revenue -9.6% YoY and adjusted NP -13.1% YoY), before declines narrow in 4Q26 and revenue potentially returns to growth in 2Q27. We forecast elevator revenue of Rmb3.04bn (-9.6% YoY), with FMCG declines narrowing while internet advertising may fall against last year's instant retail spending surge. Cinema revenue is seen at Rmb110mn (-8.1% YoY, flat QoQ). We expect cost of sales to fall 9.4% YoY with 74.0% GPM, largely flat with 3Q25, operating profit of Rmb1.5bn (-11.6%) and reported net profit of Rmb1.34bn (-15.1%; normalized -13.1%). We expect the revenue decline to narrow to 6.5% in 4Q26 rather than an immediate return to growth. The Xinchao acquisition received conditional antitrust approval, making a year-end closing possible pending SZSE review and CSRC registration;