柴油折扣上升；仍存在40%每股收益上调的可能

The diesel fuel discount offered by Thai refiners is set to rise to Bt4/litre from Bt2.4/litre currently given high diesel cracks, which have risen to US$60+/bb. However, we think the net realisation for refiners will still rise and their earnings momentum from strong diesel, gasoline and jet fuel cracks will continue. We continue to see the potential for 40% earnings upgrades for 2026-27 for Thai refiners and expect the energy security story to be supportive of their refinery earnings and returns. Thai Oil, BANGCHAK and Star Petroleum are our key OWs. If the net impact of the diesel discounts, which we have seen for the past 6 weeks, were to continue on a full-year basis it would lower the increase in margins for refiners by US$9/bbl and on current run rates would still imply 3x above mid-cycle margins.