高盛商品研究发布石油评论，建议做多2027年6月欧洲夏季汽油（EBOB Jun27）以对冲地缘政治风险，并平仓做多2027年3月至12月欧洲柴油跨期价差的推荐。报告指出，美欧柴油价格仍接近历史高位，东西管道的停运进一步扰动炼厂原油供应。柴油与汽油价差一度超过每桶60美元（一年前不足3美元），促使炼厂优先生产柴油：3—8月美国柴油收率超出季节性水平0.6个百分点，汽油收率则低于季节性水平1.3个百分点，全球汽油出口同比下降24%。与此同时，汽油需求更具韧性，OECD汽油库存降幅明显大于柴油，石脑油出口近五个月平均同比下降30%，推动美国辛烷值价格升至季节性水平上方约3美元/桶。
Diesel prices continue to trade close to their all-time highs in the US and Europe as the halt of the East-West pipeline further disrupts crude supplies to refineries. We close our long Mar27-Dec27 European diesel timespread recommendation (with a potential gain of $11/bbl or 45%) as diesel prices have risen sharply and now incorporate a large premium for the risks of further supply disruptions. We continue to see deferred refined products length as an effective hedge against further geopolitical escalation supported by structural refining tightness, but now recommend long summer European gasoline (EBOB Jun27). The key reason for this new recommendation is that refiners' switching output from gasoline to diesel is rapidly tightening gasoline markets, where less elevated price levels leave room for sharp price upside if the Mideast and Russia-Ukraine conflicts continued to constrain refining output for longer or if more energy infrastructure were damaged. We now see more price upside op