长鑫存储（A）：中国存储芯片与AI关键标的，DRAM超级周期下的良好切入点，首次覆盖给予买入

We initiate coverage of CXMT (Changxin Memory Technologies), China's largest DRAM manufacturer and the global No.4 after Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, with a Buy rating and PO of CNY65. Our Buy rating is based on proven 1H26 results (revenue US$22bn; 79% OPM; net cash position), a multi-year DRAM super-cycle with 70%+ margins sustainable through 2030, and long-term growth opportunities with China local customers, particularly in AI/data centers. We expect CXMT's DRAM ASP to rise 9% in 2027 and decline 17%/12%/11% in 2028-30, with wafer capacity rising from about 300k wpm to 470k by end-2028 and 670k by 2030. The stock trades at 11x 2027E P/E; our PO is based on 16x 2027-28 average EPS of CNY4.07. Upside risks include a more successful AI memory/HBM ramp-up, while trade restrictions, a sharp DRAM price correction and new domestic competition are key downside risks.