比亚迪2025年二季度业绩不及预期：收入2,010亿元，同比+14%、环比+17.9%；毛利率16.3%，低于去年同期的17.4%与今年一季度的20.1%；净利润66亿元，同比-29.4%、环比-30.2%，净利率3.3%，单车净利润降至4,800元（去年同期8,500元）。二季度交付115万辆新能源车（同比+16.1%），激进降价致ASP环比降5,000元至11.2万元，汽车与电池业务毛利率降至18.7%（剔除一次性10亿元经销商返利后约19.2%），上半年800亿元资本开支推升折旧摊销，进一步压制利润率。海外表现强劲，批发量同比+145%、环比+25%，占比升至23%，单车净利润超2.5万元，全年有望达100万辆；国内新能源份额回升至29.7%（一季度29.1%，去年同期34.2%），竞争仍趋激烈。
Q2 was a miss. BYD posted revenue of RMB 201bn, +14% yoy and +17.9% qoq. Overall gross margin stood at 16.3%, worsened vs. 17.4% in Q2 24 and 20.1% in Q1 25. Net income arrived at RMB 6.6bn, -29.4% yoy and -30.2% qoq, implying 3.3% net margin; net profit per car fell to RMB 4.8k from RMB 8.5k in Q2 24. BYD delivered 1.15mn EVs in Q2 25 (+16.1% yoy, +14.4% qoq), while we estimate ASP fell RMB 5k sequentially to RMB 112k on aggressive pricing. EV & battery gross margin deteriorated to 18.7% (about 19.2% excluding a one-off RMB 1bn dealer incentive), with higher capex (RMB 80bn in 1H) lifting D&A. Overseas wholesale volumes surged 145% yoy and 25% qoq with overseas mix at 23% and net profit per vehicle above RMB 25k, while domestic EV market share improved to 29.7% (vs. 29.1% in Q1 25 and 34.2% in Q2 24). We maintain Outperform, cut 2025/2026 EPS to RMB 5.32/5.94, and lower our price targets to HK$130.00 (1211.HK) and RMB120.00 (002594.CH), based on SOTP correlating to 18x 2026 EPS.