Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co Ltd (603915.SS): Discontinuation of Coverage

Our final rating is Underweight: We see demand recovering in 1H26, with shipments rising ~16% YoY for gear reducers and 7% for cycloidal pinwheel reducers, while Motoroli remained robust with shipments up 38% YoY, supported by machine tools, semiconductor equipment, new-energy equipment, and intelligent warehousing. However, we think upside visibility is limited given downstream demand concerns, ongoing competition weighing on topline and margins, and a lack of progress in the humanoid business. We forecast revenue growth of 13%/10% YoY in 2026e/27e. With 14% downside to our price target, our final rating is Underweight. Our final price target is Rmb11. We apply a 15x 2026e P/E (unchanged) to derive a core business value of Rmb7 per share. For the humanoid segment, we apply a 5x P/S to estimated sales of Rmb552mn, assuming global humanoid robot sales reach 1mn units, reflecting the industry's early but fast-growth stage. This implies a humanoid value of Rmb4 per share. Combining core a