德意志银行发布麦当劳（MCD.US）投资者日前瞻报告。麦当劳将于9月23日在芝加哥总部举办投资者日，预计公布2027年及2028-2030年财务目标，并披露聚焦下一阶段增长与效率的"McDonald's > NEXT"战略细节。市场最关注美国十年翻新周期中公司的分担比例及增量资本开支：假设单店翻新成本55万美元、公司分担50%，系统总投资约68.75亿美元，公司承担约34亿美元（分担率可能落在40-55%）；预计资本开支2027年升至约40亿美元、2028年见顶于45-46亿美元、2029/2030年回落至39-40亿美元。单位增长或因全球逆风与资本约束放缓至3.8-3.9%（2024-2026年为4-4.5%），2030年门店总数有望超5.5万家。G&A目前约占系统销售额2.2%，有望自2027年起体现杠杆，长期目标约2%，每10bp约影响EPS 1-1.5%。
Deutsche Bank previews McDonald's Investor Day on 9/23 at its Chicago HQ, where the company is expected to lay out 2027 and longer-term (2028-2030) financial targets and more detail on its McDonald's > NEXT strategy. The most anticipated focus is MCD's partnering contribution for the upcoming 10-year US remodel cycle and the resulting incremental capex. Assuming remodels cost ~$550K per US restaurant and MCD partners at 50%, the ~12,500 traditional franchised US restaurants imply ~$6.875BN of system investment, or ~$3.4BN of corporate contribution (partnership likely in the 40-55% range). DB estimates capex could rise to ~$4BN in 2027, peak at $4.5-4.6BN in 2028 and moderate to $3.9-4BN in 2029/2030. Unit growth may moderate to 3.8-3.9% (vs 4-4.5% in 2024-2026), reaching 55K+ units by 2030. G&A has run ~2.2% of system sales since 2023, with leverage potentially starting in 2027 and a long-term run-rate of ~2%. US SSS are down modestly QTD versus consensus of +0.2% for 3Q. DB trims 2026