What's New From Citi 2026 China Conference - Transsion (2636.HK/688036.SS, Not Covered)

Transsion attended Citi 2026 China conference on 11 Nov, with key discussions including: 1) The company's smartphone shipment will drop to c.70mn units this year, but ASP rises 30% YoY, with 9M26 GM at 22%. Component cost pressure peaked in 3Q26, and 4Q26 is the profit peak. 2) It voluntarily reduced the USD 50-70 low-end market and expects to recapture this segment easily once costs decline. It is gaining share in the USD 150-300 segment in SEA. It targets the 15-20% market share in Latin America and India. 3) Despite pre-installs impacted by shipment decline, mobile internet revenue grows 40%+ in 2026, mainly driven by ARPU lift, and the business is set for a 40-50% CAGR ahead. 4) ESS revenue is guided at RMB 1.5-2bn for 2026, 2-3x in 2027, and doubling again in 2028. 5) The company is confident of delivering double-digit revenue and profit growth in 2027.