National Fuel Gas F4Q26: Mixed Results w/ EPS Beating but Adj EBITDA Missing; Corporate Separation Progressing; Spreads Still Too Wide, Remain Overweight

NFG reported mixed results for 4Q26 with adj EPS beating expectations coming in at $1.22 (vs $1.04 est), but adj EBITDA fell short of expectations at $297mm (vs $301mm est). Compared to the prior year period, the quarter benefitted from increased utility margins and higher natural gas price realizations, driven by the company's strong hedge book, which were largely offset by lower production at Seneca. The company provided preliminary 2027 guidance for adj EPS of $6.00-$6.40/sh (Street $7.45/sh), with the decline from 2026 primarily driven by lower natural gas prices. Guidance assumes that natural gas prices average $2.85/MMBtu for fiscal 2027, an $0.80 decline from fiscal 2026. Seneca production is expected to be in the 400-435 Bcf range, which is flat from 2026. It's worth noting that this guidance includes 3 Bcf of voluntary price-related curtailments in October. The company has two-thirds of its production hedged at a weighted average floor of $3.80. Capex in 2027 is expected to be