US MACRO THEMATICS - Borrowed Bullishness / Mixed Macro Means META Matters(!!)

Monday's US equity strength was not US-driven: with no fresh domestic catalyst, the SPX/NDX bid came from global spillover, first in correlation to KOSPI's bounce, then from the US acting as a net beneficiary of a deteriorating Europe story. More importantly, the session expressed fiscal/geopolitical anxiety rather than AI conviction. European bonds led a global fixed income sell-off while oversold US tech absorbed the equity rotation, and US IG widened modestly ahead of hyperscaler earnings — a notable divergence given credit widening was blamed for last week's equity downtrade. The series of carry/short-vol unwinds is a real story to watch: VIX moved 9 vols on a 1% SPX down-move Friday, and multi-strat de-grossing last week was close to the worst in two years. These carry strategies act as market stabilizers, and as they unwound the volatility cushion erodes, pointing to more frequent outsized volatility. Still, funds retain a performance cushion (HFs roughly +6% YTD, SPX and MXWD in