高盛发布2026年10月美国消费者看板，核心结论是消费仍具韧性。支出方面，9月核心零售销售名义增长0.1%、实际下降0.1%，主要因8月名义增长1.2%、实际增长1.1%后回归常态；8月实际个人消费支出（PCE）同比增长2.6%，6个月年化增长3.9%。高盛预计能源价格上涨将使2026年四季度实际支出增速放缓至1.5%（环比年化），但全年及2027年仍接近潜在水平，分别为2.3%和2.1%（四季度同比）。就业市场趋于稳定，9月新增就业仅2.9万人，但潜在就业增速约5.1万人，与盈亏平衡水平大致相当；失业率小幅升至4.2%，主要因劳动参与率上升0.2个百分点至61.8%，预计至2027年底维持4.2%。收入方面，8月实际可支配收入同比增长1.3%，6个月年化增长1.6%，预计2026年增长1.2%、2027年回升至2.1%（含社保3.6%的生活成本调整）。
Spending: Official spending data implies a resilient consumer. Although core retail sales increased by only 0.1% in nominal and declined by 0.1% in real terms in September, this mostly reflects a normalization from a 1.2% nominal and 1.1% real growth pace in August. Furthermore, real PCE spending remains robust, with the August personal spending report showing 2.6% real spending growth on a year-over-year and 3.9% growth on a 6-month annualized basis. We expect higher energy prices will soften real spending growth to 1.5% in 2026Q4 (qoq annualized), but we forecast near-potential spending growth of 2.3% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 on Q4/Q4 bases. Employment: The labor market appears to have stabilized. Job growth was soft in September, with employment increasing by only 29k, but our estimate of the underlying pace of job growth stands roughly in line with our breakeven estimate at 51k. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.2%, mostly reflecting an increase in the labor force parti