InnoCare Pharma (9969.HK): Modest RMS efficacy of remibrutinib reinforces orelabrutinib’s progressive MS strategy

Remibrutinib showed modest efficacy in RMS: Novartis' Phase 3 REMODEL-1/2 data showed statistically significant but relatively modest relapse reduction in RMS, while safety remained clean. Remibrutinib reduced annualized relapse rate (ARR) by 31-35% vs. teriflunomide, below the >40% level we viewed as the investor bar going into the readout and 15-20ppt below the 51-59% reduction achieved by Roche's fenebrutinib. The pooled 6-month confirmed disability progression (CDP) risk reduction was 29.2%, also below the 35-45% range expected ahead of the data, although the disability benefit together with strong MRI activity supports CNS activity. Safety was a clear strength, with no Hy's Law cases or meaningful liver safety signal. Overall, the results further support our view that BTKi is unlikely to disrupt the RMS SoC given the effect size, while it could be added into the treatment paradigm as a new oral option;