Press Reports SpaceX In Discussions to Build a Dense National Wireless Network

Bloomberg reports SpaceX is in discussions with major tower owners, including Crown Castle, to secure access to at least 80,000 cell sites across the U.S. as it works toward building a fourth nationwide wireless carrier, combining Starlink's satellite network, newly acquired low-band spectrum and a large terrestrial tower footprint, with potential leases worth billions of dollars. Using $250k per macro site, Citi infers roughly $20B of network capex on top of $30B of spectrum, with total investment of at least $70B and a 3-5 year build window implying a national launch as early as 2029 and more likely 2030-2032. At ~20% share of the U.S. population, $35 ARPU and a 45% unlevered FCF margin, annual unlevered FCF could reach $14B, a roughly 20% return on capital. Citi views a mobile build as a net-positive for Tower stocks (Buy CCI, SBAC, AMT; 22%-44% upside in the 80k-site scenario, CCI the most) and net-negative for Telcos (gross share price risk of ~28%, ~12% remaining;