我们预计四季度流动性将保持平稳充裕，财政措施将发挥主导作用；维持做陡12月1年期与5年期NDIRS曲线（Dec-1s5s steepener）的头寸。7天回购定盘利率与7天OMO利率之间的月均利差预计稳定在3-5个基点，隔夜OMO操作规模更大、频率更高，应能抑制货币市场利率及前端NDIRS，DR001四季度大体维持在1.35-1.45%区间。2026年政府债券发行节奏慢于往年，但9月显著加快；预计四季度国债与地方债净供给维持高位，月均净发行约1.1万亿元（2025年为7300亿元，2020-24年均值为6300亿元）。需求端30年期国债（现券与期货）头寸近期明显拥挤。上周我们对多30年期国债、付息12月5年期NDIRS头寸获利了结，现持有12月1年期与5年期NDIRS做陡头寸，信心水平3/5。充裕流动性、庞大的待发行债券计划、超长端拥挤头寸、新一轮宽松政策及房贷补贴计划均支持这一观点。
We expect liquidity to stay flush and fiscal measures to take the lead; we maintain a Dec-1s5s NDIRS steepener position. Liquidity is likely to stay steady and flush in Q4, with the monthly average spread between 7d repo fixing and 7d OMO rate stabilizing at 3-5bp. Overnight OMOs were used in larger size and with higher frequency over the past few months, which should cap money market rates and front-end NDIRS. The pace of government bond issuance had been much slower in 2026 than in previous years, but it has picked up significantly in September. We expect net CGB and LGB supply to stay elevated in Q4 2026, with monthly average net issuance at ~RMB1.1trn (2025: RMB730bn, 2020-24 average: RMB630bn). On the demand side, positioning in 30y CGBs (both cash bonds and futures) appears to have recently become heavy. We took profit on a long 30y CGB versus pay Dec-5y NDIRS position last week, and now hold a Dec-1s5s steepener with a conviction level of 3/5. Loose liquidity, a large bond issua