China EV & Asia Emerging Robotics Tour Takeaways: Beyond the Downturn

Over the past two weeks, Bernstein hosted its inaugural China Humanoid Robotics & Auto Supply Chain Tour (Sep 9-11) and 4th China EV & Battery Value Chain Tour (Sep 14-18), engaging with leading companies and industry experts across the ecosystem. Looking into 2027, industry players generally hold a cautious view on China's domestic auto demand, citing weak consumer spending, limited policy support, and the possibility of flat to negative YoY growth, while sentiment on exports remains constructive though growth is expected to moderate. In 2026 8M, China's wholesale auto volumes declined 5.3% YoY, with domestic demand down 19.7% while exports surged 71.8%; August SAAR was estimated at 19.4mn units. Industry participants continue to expect EV penetration to reach 80-90% by 2030. A primary policy focus is the possibility of a reduction in China's 13% export VAT rebate, with participants viewing a phased reduction (e.g., to 9%) as more likely than immediate removal;