Ero Copper: Solid 3Q26 Results and Reaffirmed FY26 Production Guide, Bonds Tight in a Favorable Copper Market

Earnings Review: EROCN reported solid 3Q26 results. Revenues increased 97% y/y to $348m (vs $338m est), and adjusted EBITDA of $201m (vs $191m est) benefited from higher copper and gold sales volumes and favorable metal prices. Copper production rose 6% q/q to 18,345 tonnes, while gold produced and recovered at Xavantina increased 23% q/q to 25,258 oz, driven by greater recovery from historic concentrate stockpiles. Net debt declined by ~$99m q/q to $354m, with net leverage improving to 0.5x. EROCN ended September with ~$264m of available liquidity, including ~$114m of cash. Outlook: EROCN reaffirmed its 2026 copper production guidance of 67,500-77,500 tonnes, with 4Q expected to be the strongest production quarter at both copper operations. Consolidated copper C1 cash cost guidance was raised to $2.25-$2.45/lb from $2.15-$2.35/lb, reflecting a stronger BRL and inflationary pressures. At Xavantina, mined gold production guidance was lowered to 30K-35K oz from 40K-50K oz, and mined gold