3Q26 Preview: Near-term bar appears low given macro concerns; risk-reward favorable for potential upside to expectations in utility-scale – Buy NXT, SHLS, FSLR

Heading into 3Q26 earnings, we believe investor expectations are relatively subdued, if not outright bearish, given ongoing macro headwinds (e.g. interest rates, cost inflation from Section 232, equipment bans) that create perceived risk to near-term trends in bookings and demand that, YTD, have largely been favorable – particularly in utility-scale solar. To that end, we think this low bar sets up well for risk-reward in larger-cap names like NXT and FSLR, where potential upside to more muted bookings expectations exists, in our view, and amidst a pullback that has both stocks trading near valuation lows on the year (at ~15x and ~8x FY2 P/E, respectively). Within smaller-caps, SHLS appears best positioned to beat expectations given healthy demand trends, margin recovery and growing new product/vertical leverage with the company's plan to introduce new long-term financial targets as part of 3Q earnings also poised to provide an idiosyncratic catalyst this quarter. Within this report, w