摩根大通《新兴市场边缘数据观察》为其覆盖34个未纳入全球数据观察经济体的旗舰周报。下周IMF/世界银行年会将在泰国曼谷举行,当前中东与乌克兰冲突持续、通胀担忧上升、全球金融条件收紧,但前沿市场表现相对有韧性,主权利差与汇率保持稳定,市场准入与资本流动延续。报告汇总了各区域IMF项目进展:非洲活跃项目减少,埃及为唯一在跑项目,赞比亚获36个月ECF安排;亚洲巴基斯坦、斯里兰卡在项目下表现强劲;拉美接触深化,玻利维亚获36个月EFF(约19亿美元),委内瑞拉恢复关系;中东埃及、约旦、也门为活跃项目,伊拉克、叙利亚、黎巴嫩为潜在新项目;欧洲基本面最佳,仅乌克兰依赖IMF融资。
The EM Edge Data Watch weekly is J.P. Morgan's flagship publication providing in-depth coverage of 34 economies not included in our Global Data Watch. Next week, the IMF and World Bank annual meetings will be held in Bangkok, Thailand. Amid ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, rising inflation concerns and tightening global financial conditions, frontier markets have been relatively resilient, with sovereign spreads and currencies holding in, market access intact and capital flows continuing. The report provides an update on the status of active and expected IMF programs across EM Edge: Africa is less active with fewer programs, Egypt being the only active one; Pakistan and Sri Lanka performed strongly under their programs in Asia; Latin America's engagement has deepened, with Bolivia gaining Board approval for a 36-month EFF and Venezuela resuming relations;