本报告探讨欧洲食品及家庭个人护理(HPC)行业中的长寿(Longevity)大趋势。历史上必需消费品回报由有机增长驱动,但受"消费边界"限制,人均消费量存在上限,估算过去20年这一因素拖累必需消费增长约200个基点;而长寿趋势为品牌提供了打破边界的机遇——通过高蛋白、肠道健康、功能性营养、皮肤美容等产品驱动品类增长。报告认为不存在好或坏的品类,品牌可通过创新主动做大品类。近期并购潮印证这一趋势:达能以约10亿欧元收购Huel,联合利华以约12亿美元收购Grüns,宝洁以约38亿美元收购Thorne,雀巢收购Yfood。联合利华健康与保健业务(Olly、Liquid I.V.、Nutrafol)截至2025年中已连续21个季度实现双位数内生增长,成为成功范本。报告对拜尔斯道夫、利洁时、达能、联合利华给予跑赢大盘评级,对汉高、赫力昂、雀巢、欧莱雅、Orkla、Lindt给予与大盘持平评级。
Returns in Consumer Staples are driven by organic growth, but organic growth has been slowing due to bounded consumption, contributing around 200bps of Staples growth slowdown over the past 20 years. Longevity is a megatrend that appears here to stay: in Food it shows up as high protein, gut health and functional nutrition; in Beauty and Personal Care via the immense growth of Dermatological Beauty. The ageing population creates structural demand for healthier living, turning longevity from a niche concept into a broad consumer spending priority. Longevity trends are a perfect opportunity for CPG manufacturers to drive category growth, and the recent wave of M&A (Danone/Huel ~€1bn, Unilever/Grüns ~$1.2bn, P&G/Thorne ~$3.8bn, Nestlé/Yfood) reflects companies acknowledging this. Unilever's Health & Wellness subdivision, built via M&A of Olly, Liquid I.V. and Nutrafol, reported 21 consecutive quarters of double-digit underlying sales growth. We have Outperform ratings on Beiersdorf, Recki