9月信贷数据回暖，但反弹呈季节性、政策驱动特征，而非自发性的广泛复苏。人民币贷款新增1.08万亿元，略高于市场及摩根大通预期（1.047万亿元），但贷款同比增速再降0.1个百分点至4.8%的历史新低；企业与政府中长期贷款贡献8900亿元，与央行对"六张网"等政策重点行业的定向支持一致，居民中长期贷款止跌但仍仅870亿元，居民借款整体零增长。社会融资规模增量3.548万亿元（预期3.434万亿元），主要靠政府债券1.536万亿元和影子信贷2480亿元支撑，企业债券融资收缩390亿元，社融同比增速回落0.1个百分点至7.1%。货币指标整体偏弱：信贷脉冲收窄0.2个百分点至2.0%，M2增速降至7.2%，M1降至3.2%，M1-M2剪刀差扩大至-4.0个百分点；存款增速7.5%继续快于贷款，贷存比降至81.1%。
September credit flows improved, but the rebound was seasonal and corporate-led rather than broad-based. Loan growth slowed another 0.1%pt to a record-low 4.8%oya, while non-loan TSF—mainly government bonds and stronger shadow credit—provided the principal offset. Corporate bond financing contracted and equity financing remained moderate. New CNY loans rose to CNY1,080bn, slightly above our and market expectations (JPM: CNY1,047bn). Medium- and long-term loans increased to CNY977bn from CNY238bn in August, but remained below CNY1,160bn a year earlier. Corporate medium- and long-term loans contributed CNY890bn, consistent with targeted PBOC support for the "Six Networks" and other policy-favored sectors. Household medium- and long-term loans stopped contracting after two negative months but remained soft at CNY87bn. Overall loan growth slowed to 4.8%oya, or 4.1% 3m/3m saar, while outstanding CNY loans fell to 59.8% of TSF, 1.3%pts below a year earlier. TSF also modestly exceeded expecta