中国月报：10月数据前瞻

We expect growth to rise further in October, due mainly to a low base for a broad range of activity data and some targeted policy support. Excluding base effects, underlying growth momentum may remain soft, as we expect sequential growth indicators to show domestic weakness. Export growth is likely to remain strong, but a large part of the strength is likely to have been driven by price effects. With backloaded government bond issuance and the deployment of policy bank lending, government spending may start to pick up, while the fiscal multiplier might be largely muted on an impaired credit system. Following the release of Q3 GDP data, we raised our Q4 and 2026 full-year growth forecasts to 4.8% y-o-y and 4.7%, respectively, from 4.5% and 4.5%. However, we believe markets may look past a higher Q4 GDP growth number and focus more on the growth outlook for next year, for which we maintain our below-consensus GDP growth forecast of 4.0% for 2027 (Consensus: 4.4%). We expect the PMIs to r