花旗-中国经济观察｜思考2027：增长、政策与核心命题

This report summarizes Citi's monthly China macro call held on 28 Oct, focused on the 2027 outlook. Participants agreed the 2026 growth target is achievable but pressure could build into 2027, given uncertainty over export resilience, persistently weak consumption, a growing property drag on investment and government finances, and a further headwind from the inventory cycle (inventory accumulation may have added ~1ppt to industrial production and 0.2-0.3ppt to GDP in 26Q1-3). Growth could slow to 4.2% YoY in 2027E, with the target possibly trimmed to "around 4.5%". A far more aggressive fiscal expansion than the base case was called for: an upside case with the budget deficit at 5% of GDP (vs 4% in 2026) and significantly larger special bond quotas, lifting the augmented fiscal deficit to ~11% of GDP (+3ppts), with funds diverted to investment including water networks and underground pipelines. On revenue, taxation of overseas income should stay and export VAT rebate cuts expand, but n