德意志银行《亚洲宏观洞察：财政推力，货币拉力》指出，亚洲2026年GDP增速有望从2025年的5.4%升至5.5%，受AI与半导体周期、强劲出口和设备投资驱动，但各经济体本土价值获取能力差异显著，东盟对中国存在较大贸易逆差。财政持续发力与货币政策紧缩周期扩大形成日益明显的错配，美国利率上行对亚洲多数经济体利率形成引力：印尼、菲律宾央行已部分逆转2024-25年降息并可能继续加息，印度央行四季度启动加息，马来西亚与泰国央行2027年跟进，韩国与台湾央行或将连续加息至2008年以来高位。财政部继续支持家庭应对生活成本压力并推动AI应用。中国仍是区域最特殊的故事，政策支持增强与房地产艰难转型并存：地方债发行加快、再贷款工具与利息补贴扩围，8月PMI改善但内需偏弱，CPI、PPI分别回升至0.8%和3.8%，德银维持2026年CPI预测1.2%、上调PPI预测至3.0%。
Asia is well on its way to achieving stronger GDP growth of 5.5% in 2026, up from 5.4% in 2025, led by the AI and semiconductor cycle. Against a backdrop of robust exports and investment, domestic value capture varies significantly across economies, while continued fiscal support is increasingly at odds with a broadening monetary-tightening cycle, as higher US rates act as a gravitational force on rates across much of Asia. Regional activity continues to surprise on the upside, with Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan benefiting from strong current-account balances. The RBI will begin its rate-hiking cycle in Q4, followed by BNM and the BoT in 2027, while the BoK is likely to deliver an extended series of rate hikes and Taiwan's CBC starts its own, with both expected to reach levels not seen since 2008. Fiscal policy is not tightening in parallel, creating a visible policy mismatch. China remains the region's principal idiosyncratic story, as stronger policy support coincides with a diff