AI资本开支持续快速增长，其中大部分支出最终流向亚洲制造的设备，因此科技出口对主要亚洲经济体GDP的贡献估计继续上升：预计2026年出口将为台湾实际GDP增长贡献7个百分点，为韩国、越南、马来西亚贡献2-3个百分点，新加坡紧随其后。除出口外，亚洲资本支出（出口产能扩张与本地数据中心投资）也在增加，消费边际上受益于股市财富效应，韩国和台湾企业税收激增支撑政府支出加快增长；但AI对本地需求的整体提振仍远小于出口影响，除台湾外均低于GDP的1个百分点。报告基于OECD投入产出表的国内增加值比例测算科技出口的贡献，并提示进口漏损、加工贸易及结转贸易等口径风险。分渠道看，半导体制造投资受设备进口漏损影响，对2026年韩国和台湾实际增长的贡献约为50个基点和1.2个百分点；
Capital spending on the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout continues to grow rapidly, with the majority of that spending going to equipment manufactured in Asia. Consequently, our estimates for the contribution of tech exports to GDP in key Asian producers continue to rise. For 2026, we estimate exports will provide a 7pp boost to real GDP growth in Taiwan, and 2-3pp in Korea, Vietnam and Malaysia, with Singapore close behind. Beyond exports, we see increasing evidence of a lift to capital spending in Asia - both in terms of productive capacity for exports, and in local data center investment. Consumption is likely benefiting on the margin from positive equity wealth effects in several economies, and in Korea and Taiwan surging corporate tax receipts are supporting faster growth in government spending. However, the overall AI-related boost to domestic demand remains small in comparison to the export impact - well under 1pp of GDP ex-Taiwan. We estimate a modest real growth boost fro