摩根大通本周在深圳举办消费体验调研，期间与东鹏饮料、思摩尔交流，访谈餐饮连锁专家，并实地走访霸王茶姬、影石创新、吉多、老铺黄金、周大福及水贝市场六处门店。主要发现：霸王茶姬同店销售自5月转正，10月实现双位数增长，得益于高频上新与营销加码；瑞幸、古茗10月同店销售分别增长1-2%和3-4%；零食量贩龙头门店密度上升造成约两成销售分流，新店回本周期或延长至四至五年。整体需求仍呈结构性特征，健康、户外及差异化产品更抗跌，消费者对提价抵触明显。投资上偏好防御型龙头与精选转型标的，首选美的、百胜中国、农夫山泉、安踏，以及霸王茶姬、蒙牛、申洲国际。
We hosted a Consumer Experience Tour in Shenzhen this week, meeting with Eastroc Beverage and Smoore, speaking with an expert in the QSR/FMD industry, and visiting six stores/locations: Chagee, Insta360, Jido, Laopu, Chow Tai Fook and the Shuibei market. Key positives included: (1) Chagee's SSS recovery, supported by frequent product launches and stronger marketing; (2) improving trends at Luckin and Guming, with easier comps and better order mix supporting YoY store-level margin improvement; and (3) franchisees' confidence in the leading snack discounters BusyMing/Wanchen, despite longer payback periods. Overall, investors still see little prospect of a broad demand recovery and favor defensive names alongside select turnarounds and alpha generators, and we agree. Our top picks include category champion/defensive picks: Midea, Yum China, Nongfu Spring and Anta; and turnaround picks: Chagee, Mengniu and Shenzhou. Momentum is mixed and, in some channels, softened after the October holid