Addressing a key investor issue in a paragraph and a chart: The momentum in yields is real

We expect industry portfolio yields to increase ~50-75 bps from current levels over the next 2-3 years. Adjusting for the ~30 bps increase YTD, of which half reflects reinvestment rates (a Fed hike of 25 bps plus a rise in the yield curve of ~75-125 bps across 6M-10Y maturities), implies peak portfolio yields should be ~2X higher than our forecast at the start of 2026. In ROE terms, the increase in yields since January is worth ~250-350 bps, which does not appear to be reflected in consensus estimates. Our baseline assumptions incorporate ST rates of 3% from 2029 onwards although moving that assumption up by a year does not materially change the forecast. This contrasts with a ST rate assumption of 3.0% by YE 2027 in our forecast at the beginning of the year.