Lithium: Global BEV sales in October up 1% YTD YoY; strong EU offsets weaker China

Key takeaways from the September EV sales data: (1) Global BEV sales (China + EU + US) in October were +1% YTD YoY at 9.1M units with October +7% YoY; global BEV penetration was flat at 29%. (2) China BEV penetration increased to 47% in October, with BEV sales down 5% YTD YoY at 770k units, while total EV (BEV+PHEV) penetration remained flat MoM at 67%. China total PV sales were down 27% YoY. (3) US BEV sales were up 4% MoM to 84k units (from 81k) but are down 30% YTD; BEV penetration remained at 6%. (4) EU-10 BEV September sales were up 46% YTD YoY to 286k units; BEV penetration is at a high of 32%. In terms of lithium, we continue to forecast a deficit market in 2027 before moving into balance in 2028/2029. SMM data continues to show a lithium chemicals deficit in China whilst carbonate inventories draw down, but port ore inventories have risen. JPM is forecasting 2% global EV sales growth in 2026 vs 1% YTD. Our top pick in the lithium space is PLS.