European Conventional Asset Managers Sep'26 MTM and Q3 preview – sector re-rating offers limited upside

Broadly flat Q3 markets and mixed flows mean limited estimate changes as we preview Q3 reporting. The YTD re-rating leaves European conventional AMs fully valued vs. history and US peers, implying limited upside potential without fresh EPS upgrades. We remain OW Man Group, UW Ashmore and Aberdeen. Major indices ended broadly flat over Q3, within a range of c.-2% to +2%. We forecast mixed QoQ AUM movements, with Man strongest at +4% (AUM +2.3% QoQ) and Ashmore weakest at c.-1%. In flow terms we expect Q3 net inflows at all coverage names except Amundi, where the India EPFO mandate loss of c.€40bn weighs on flows. We raise Amundi EPS estimates by >5% and reduce Ashmore estimates by >10%. The traditional AM sub-sector remains the only sub-sector within our Diversified Financials coverage to have re-rated over the past 12 months; at these levels we believe the sector needs fresh EPS upgrades.