摩根士丹利对紫金矿业（2899.HK）西藏巨龙矿区进行实地走访。紫金在巨龙的回收率一期约90%、二期约86%，二期仍有提升空间；2029/30年起高品位矿石将更具意义，有助于降低单位成本。管理层预计2030年产量有望达350–400千吨，三期长期或再增约250千吨/年，主要瓶颈仍是尾矿库产能与审批，三期尚无明确时间表。巨龙应用的无人电动矿卡、AI选矿与磨矿优化等智能采矿技术可复制至紫金其他矿山。管理层指引2026年集团铜产量109–120万吨，巨龙与翔龙项目支撑2027年增长，雄村预计2028年投产，塞尔维亚提供更长期上行空间。巨龙2026年铜产量预计30–31万吨、2027年31–32万吨；1H26成本同比上升13%，主因由外包转向自营。西藏地方政府潜在权利金上调仍在讨论中，最大影响约为成本增加10–15亿元人民币。评级增持，目标价61港元。
Zijin's recovery rates at Julong are ~90% for Phase I and 86% for Phase II, with scope to improve Phase II performance. Higher-grade ore should become more meaningful from 2029/30, supporting lower unit costs. By 2030, management sees potential production of 350-400kt, while Phase III could add ~250ktpa over the longer term. The key bottleneck remains tailings capacity and approvals, with no clear timeline yet for Phase III. The smart-mining technologies, including autonomous electric trucks and AI-based ore and grinding optimization, that Zijin has incorporated at Julong could be replicated across Zijin's other mines. For Zijin overall, management guides 2026 copper output to 1.09-1.2mt. The Julong and Xianglong projects underpin growth in 2027, with Xiongcun expected from 2028 and Serbia offering longer-term upside. Management also expects copper's contribution to the group to increase over time. Julong remains a key growth driver for Zijin, with 2026 copper production expected to re