周日开始：全球宏观的下一步发展：近期和远期的选举

Elections have consequences, and markets are weighing the consequences of elections past, present and future. The US midterm elections take place this week; polls suggest a divided government, and if they are right, our base case for the macro impulse from federal policy is very little change in the status quo. Tariffs, trade and immigration have all generated uncertainty over time, but these are areas where the executive branch exercises authority without needing new legislation, so a change in control of Congress most likely will not bring changes in how those powers are exercised. With a big enough swing in House and Senate majorities, however, some domestic spending cuts could be reversed, adding a modest boost to growth, and military spending might be restrained. In Brazil, Lula da Silva's election was followed by substantial market volatility from a reassessment of fiscal prospects, but stabilizing the fiscal outlook would be difficult regardless of the winner: more than 91% of s