India Economics – Macro Indicators Chartbook: Challenging External Dynamics Persist

Growth remains resilient, supported by broad-based strength. However, a deterioration in price and external stability indicators points to rising macro-stability risks. As such, we expect the RBI to hike rates at its next three consecutive meetings, taking the terminal policy rate to 6.25%. Growth: high-frequency data remained resilient in September across domestic and external growth indicators — vehicle registrations continued to grow in double-digits, bank credit stayed strong at 19.4% and power demand grew above 11% for the fifth consecutive month. Broad market corporate revenue (ex energy finance) is tracking at a 14-quarter high of 16.6% for QE Sep-26, and non-oil exports grew at a healthy rate. Inflation: headline CPI rose to 5.5% YoY in September vs 4.8% in August, driven by higher food (7.7%) and fuel (5.3%) prices;