Brownie Points: Examining Impact of Mid-Terms on M&A

Weekly "Brownie Points" publication highlights key points and emerging trends across asset managers & brokers. Point 1: Examining the impact of mid-term elections on M&A. Analysis of prior mid-terms shows no consistent trend — activity typically slows in the months leading up to midterms then accelerates, and stock performance is weak into midterms and rises post, but this pattern is observable in typical annual seasonality, so midterms are not the main driver. Context matters: the '14 mid-terms saw a senate control change amid lower rates and strong equities, while '18 saw a house control change amid monetary tightening and trade uncertainty. According to Kalshi, Democrats have a 62% chance of winning the senate and 91% the house (versus 20% and 76% six months ago);