日本视频游戏：9月拥堵期的数据驱动观察及第二季度展望

A look ahead to Q2 reporting, with AI help. In this note we take stock of the latest high-frequency data we use to infer new game sales at launch, and update some quick thoughts on sector risk-reward post-TGS. We remain constructive top-down, and expect the stocks we like to have room to run as investors pivot to focusing on FY3/28E valuation multiples. Over very short time horizons, a period of digestion wouldn't surprise us. Dawnwalker, Onimusha, Ace Combat 8 were recent launch winners: the industry's desire to avoid running into GTA VI drove a logjam of new releases in September and October, with Onimusha and The Blood of Dawnwalker both likely over 2mn units by now, Ace Combat 8 at 1.5-2.0mn units at launch, and Silent Hill Townfall at 700-800k units, while Wolverine was a notable dud likely falling below the 6mn units hurdle which reportedly triggers an "option to terminate" in the licencing deal between Marvel and Sony. We are also expanding our AI-driven data pipeline: in Q2, 88